Predict Protocol is a decentralized prediction-market platform developed on the BNB Smart Chain. It utilizes the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) to create prediction markets with automated liquidity and non-custodial features. Launched with the aim of enabling users to trade outcome shares of various events, Predict Protocol is designed to operate without any central authority controlling funds.

Overview

Predict Protocol is a non-custodial, on-chain prediction-market protocol on BNB Smart Chain that uses an LMSR market maker to let anyone permissionlessly create binary outcome markets and trade them with 2×–10× native leverage, backed by a multi-tier LP vault that acts as the house counterparty. Predict Protocol seeks to expand the capabilities of prediction markets by providing a robust, non-custodial environment on BNB Smart Chain, focusing on scalability and seamless cross-chain integration. It leverages the LMSR model to maintain consistent liquidity and limit protocol liability by bounding maximum losses in markets. ^[1]​

Products

Predict Protocol is centered around creating decentralized prediction markets. It supports trading on various events including sports, finance, and other cultural phenomena. Users can engage in prediction activities by creating and trading on markets using a dual-outcome structure that supports only binary questions. ^{[2] [1]}

Features

Key features of Predict Protocol include leverage options from 2x to 10x, multi-tiered liquidity provision through LP vaults, and a transparent fee structure split between platform, creators, and liquidity providers. Predict markets employ the LMSR cost function, clearly defining market dynamics and maintaining integrity in the prediction process. ^[3]

Ecosystem

Predict Protocol operates in a non-custodial manner, with each participant having control over their funds. The platform supports a public index for market states, allowing interested users and third parties to replicate market data from on-chain events. ^[3] It plans to expand to additional EVM chains and roll out APIs to broaden access and utility. ^[1]

Use Cases

• Sports Predictions: Betting on outcomes of sports events.
• Financial Market Predictions: Trading predictions on market movements like cryptocurrencies and stock prices.
• Political Events: Trading on possible outcomes of political elections and decisions.
• Cultural Events: Engaging in predictions in diverse categories like entertainment and art. ^[1]

Architecture

The platform's architecture is composed of various smart contracts, such as PredictMarketLMSR.sol, which handles the logic for market creation and prediction trading. Other components include the FeeVault, LeverageVault, and LPVault, which manage fees, leverage, and liquidity respectively. Off-chain data indexing is managed through services like Moralis Streams and Supabase, providing efficient querying capabilities. ^[1]

Tokenomics

• Total Supply: 30,000,000,000 $PRED tokens (BEP-20).
• Allocation: Includes Ecosystem and Rewards (26%), Team and Advisors (15%), Treasury (15%), and others.
• Utilities:
• Market resolution staking.
• Fee discounts for $PRED holders.
• Governance participation. ^[4]
• Governance: Token holders can vote on protocol changes, such as fee schedules and resolver whitelists, through the DAO. ^[1]

Confirmed Partnerships

Predict Protocol collaborates with various well-known auditing firms, including Trail of Bits, OpenZeppelin, and Spearbit, to secure third-party audits for ensuring protocol integrity and security compliance. ^[3]

These elements collectively aim to foster a transparent, secure, and efficient environment for prediction trading on blockchain networks, enhancing user experience and broadening market reach.